The real problem of the United States economy

Currently, ferocious yen against the dollar is in progress, the cause is mainly this ↓.

"July University of Michigan consumer confidence index: last year in August come lowest
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=aP0BwjnoyfSQ
US consumer confidence index dropped to July, the lowest level for the first time in one year. Consumption, which accounts for a large part of the economy has been suggested that there is losing momentum.
Of July Reuters University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (preliminary value) and 66.5, it fell from the previous month of 76. This is the lowest level since August 2009. The most pessimistic forecast of economists by Bloomberg News was summarized also I below. The median of economists expected 74. 9.5 point decline is the largest since October 2008 immediately following the Lehman shock in the previous month. (Koryaku) "

Personal consumption of the United States, which said that "the world's largest demand item" without Monk, there are losing momentum.

And not Michigan index only, of June US retail sales has also become a negative in the previous month, it is clear that consumption of the country is losing its force. According to the US Department of Commerce announced, retail sales of the country in June, the end to the decrease of 0.5 percent in the previous month, will that followed two months decreased continuously in May.

A result, long-term interest rates fall from the United States of the economic downturn expected (US Treasury prices rose), and ten-year government bonds is now 3.04%. Maybe then, you might rush to two percent as after the Lehman shock. Having fallen victim of the US Treasury interest rates decline, even interest rates of Japanese government bonds is there always had interrupted 1.1 percent.

Cause of personal consumption downturn of this American households, that is, but is a "real problem of the American economy," Well, will you understand in one shot and if you look at the following graph.

[Financial liabilities transition of American households (Unit: one billion US dollars) in 2003 - 2010 Q1]
http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_29.html#USdept

According to the latest data of the FRB, even led to the end of March 2010, it has still American households continue to reduce the "debt". In short, it is a translation are devoted to debt repayment.
"The world's largest demand item" that the United States of personal consumption, rather than debt of the country's household is reduced, will suffer great damage in only "does not increase". Nevertheless, debt of American households since the Lehman shock, is why has continued reducing the steadily balance in every quarter.

Households devoted to debt repayment, more than it does not expand the liability, personal consumption of the United States is natural even if the downturn. As far as the June retail sales and Michigan index of the above, I think that there is a high possibility that the decrease is more of American household debt at the time the end of June 2010.

In response to the collapse of the bubble economy, private economic agents despite the ultra-low interest rates, we do not borrow money, as a result of trying to focus on repayment rather, is reduced (personal consumption in the case of the United States) flow.
In short, it is a balance sheet recession.

Protagonist of the balance sheet recession in Japan was a company, if the United States is a translation of the household.

Although there are differences between the households and companies, that the future of the United States' government bonds interest rate downturn "," nominal GDP growth rate decline, "" the unemployment rate remains high, "" export offensive "," zero interest rates continue ", since 1998, Japan is through It was. I think that it is not high for a possibility to follow the road.