Wednesday, July 8, 2015

The real problem of the continued US economy

"US Treasury: 2 year yields decline, the third record low in the past the 4th
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=aIYCEozrw5ek
2-year note yield gave a record low in the US bond market. Third time to update the record low here four business days. Of June housing starts fall to lowest level since October last year, is in the background is that the growing signs of economic expansion pace slowed.
'10 Bond yield temporary, decline in the level for the first time in about three weeks. US housing market index for July to show the sentiment of US housing construction companies, which was announced the day before, became a low level first time in 15 months. Bernanke US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) Chairman 21 days and the 22nd, perform semi-annual monetary policy report in the US Congress.
Societe Generale of US Treasury bonds trader, Mr. Sean Murphy, pointed out that "among other factors that affect the movement of the economy up to now, the real estate market is an important part." "Bernanke needs to take a consistent attitude of balance, the economy was likely to show the recognition that not be dive," he said.
According to BG Cantor Market Data, New York time 16:49 current 10-year bond yield is the day before ratio of 1 basis point (bp, 1bp = 0.01%) 2.95% of the decline. Temporary and 2.89%, it puts the lowest level since July 1.
(Snip)
'10 Bond yield is down from the highest of 4.01% year-to-date that you gave to the April 5 more than 1 point. Worldwide to stronger background of signs of economic slowdown, safety and differentially background that there is a growing US debt demand.
Morgan Keegan fixed income sales, trading and research officer of, Kevin Gidisu, the "pace of the economy has been very slow, they need a lot of underpinning" it was pointed out.
US housing starts in June fell to the lowest level since last October. Decrease in home sales due to the tax deduction the end of the government housing for buyers that has taken has been affected. Of June housing starts (seasonally adjusted, annualized) was 549,000 units, down compared to the previous month five percent. (Koryaku) "

Speaking after all what is a problem of and, of course housing.
The housing for the American "current assets" So, when compared to Japan impact of housing slump will become larger. Of housing excess of course, leads to a slowdown in house prices, it will lead to slowdown in consumption.
The first place, but you have the current American households Tsu fallen to the "balance sheet recession" state to repay the excess debt, excess inventory of housing will serve to facilitate this.

I wrote several times in the past, the US government, had conducted a home purchase assistance measures that tax credit the $ 8,000 for the first time home buyers to this year of the end of March. Such as in February and March, "rush demand" that aims to solve this problem occurs, but I had to prop up the housing market, it is why the reaction has come out. This is whether the end to decrease mere reactionary. As long as you are looking at a variety of indicators of, and not think very it seems, impact on the world economy will inevitably large. In the current America, homes for sale has fallen into excess inventory, and I need to have fallen into absolutely no situation to rush the start of construction.

And I think even more scary, this is the other day was also introduced "financial liabilities Changes in American households."

[Financial liabilities transition of American households (Unit: one billion US dollars) in 2003 - 2010 Q1]
http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_29.html#USdept

Even in the first quarter there was in 2010 that the surge in demand, the American household is a translation continues to reduce the mortgage balance. Despite there was a generous support measures of the government, mortgage balance of American households have not increased. Rather than say, it has decreased rather. If if there is no home purchase assistance of government, mortgage balance of households it is clear was sorry in the reduction of "this extent."

By the way, when you look at the economic entities of financial liabilities, including also the (sector) trends in the non-household, use the following.

[American sectoral important financial liabilities transition (Unit: one billion US dollars) in 2007 - 2010 Q1]
http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_29.html#USDEPT2

Not only households, in which even the financial institutions has been a compression of the debt (the so-called de-leverage), the government increased the debt in most lone struggle the first time, you'll seen a situation that is the underpinning of the economy .
In short, the current United States is not in a situation that was very similar to Japan in the early 1990s. Under the name of "fiscal consolidation" and "exit strategy" from this situation, when you force a fiscal austerity, it will be just become Ninomai Hashimoto regime.
The United States to learn the Japanese experience, so as not to run into urgent fiscal consolidation, we do not get forced to pray also for the world economy.

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