Thursday, July 9, 2015

Among which it is not dancing but whistling, to stop and the for the ref to blow the whistle

"April US employment: increased to 240,000 an increase of unemployment rate of 9%, employment rate decrease
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=aJvI8Oz.doFo
Although the April non-farm payrolls rose more than expected, the unemployment rate has risen from the previous month.
When the US Department of Labor is due to the employment statistics of April, which was announced on the 6th, non-farm payrolls (office survey, seasonally adjusted) is an increase compared to the previous month 244,000 people, the largest growth in since May 2010 . Increase width was higher than the median forecast of economists that summarizes the Bloomberg News (185,000 people year-on-year).
On the other hand, the unemployment rate of April, which is based on the household survey rose to 9% (previous month of 8.8%). First since last November rise in the unemployment rate. 8.8% had been expected in the forecast. (Snip)
Employment of government-related agencies 24,000 people decrease. In particular, employment of local government was reduced 14 000 people. (Snip)
Broad unemployment rate rose to 15.9%
On the other hand, in the household survey, including the self-employed, the number of employees is 190,000 decrease from the previous month, employment ratio was reduced to 58.4% (58.5% the previous month).
In addition to the unemployed, broad unemployment rate people including gave up looking for workers and jobs have been forced to part-time work in economic deterioration rose from 15.9 percent the previous month of 15.7% in April. (Koryaku) "

American unemployment rate, has become a seesaw situation. The unemployment rate, which had been cut 8.8 percent and 9 percent in March is, I have once again back to 9% in April.

Deficit reduction request is too strong Republican and tea party, making it difficult in the future of the Obama administration to do the massive fiscal stimulus. Since the financial local government has also been extremely worse, employment of civil servants also will not get a choice but to reduce.

[American monetary base, the money stock (left axis, unit: one million US dollars), money multiplier (right axis, double)]
http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_33.html#Money

As mentioned above, the American monetary base Lehman shock later, it went growing at frightening momentum. QE1 is a translation GSE debt (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bonds, etc.) the FRB had been purchased, but the current QE2 (quantitative easing second edition) is the center of US Treasury bonds.

And buy US bonds from FRB each bank, and at the same time receiving the US Treasury from the bank is that the new FRB is transfer money money in reserve account of each bank (ie, it is $ issue).
Then, government bonds that were bought on the balance sheet of the assets of the FRB has been recorded, they are recorded are ready to deposit liabilities. FRB By increasing the reserve is the nominal debt, the dollar is possible the issuing and Jabujabu, it is a translation that is actually doing (if the Bank of Japan, will be the liability of the central bank deposits) .

Bank side were asked to buying government bonds, since the money in the reserve account not tell most interest rates, it is not to try hard to Kashidaso to the private sector. If the money to the private sector is rented out, it (although only move between actually account) is spending act with silicic come back to the bank in the credit creation of the money stock (society as a whole of money) by the action to expand the go. A result, the value of the currency drops, It is a story that can avoid deflation (= rise in currency value).

However, even if the reality to increase the FRB is monetary base, since the collapse of Lehman Brothers does not go the money stock is much more. In short, it is a story that the American domestic private (firms and households) do not borrow money.
A result, money multiplier (an indicator of whether the money stock is many times the monetary base) is, I have almost half since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

In short it is not set to "FRB is but whistling and dancing without" state. That said, stock prices thanks to liquidity (Kaseru money) has increased the decent rise, because is not weak dollar has continued in and Thailand Japanese Yen, it's as Bernanke FRB chairman thinks, "This is my best." It may be.

If the original, here is the government to expand investment and consumption, but is where you want to turn the economy of the engine, the fiscal deficit is political issue, it is a difficult situation.

"The US Department of the Treasury, to extend the deadline outlook toward default avoided August 2
http://jp.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idJPJAPAN-20919020110503
US Treasury was extended to two days, and the default (default) deadline outlook towards avoiding the August 2, which has been with previous July 8.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, in addition to the fact that tax revenue is higher than expected, by the emergency of borrowing capacity preservation measures, explained that has made it possible to issue a continuing legally government bonds until August 2. 4 ─ borrowing outlook amount of June period and $ 142 billion, that was reduced by more than half.
The Tour of the upper limit raising issues of federal debt, the parliament became dressed was born further grace period. (Koryaku) "

Pick up occasionally in this blog, but is a legal limit problem of issuing American government bonds, was postponed until the time being deadline is August 2nd. (Originally it was this month)

In the United States will continue to issue a lawful government bonds, How can I must get increase the legal limit to Congress, the current US Congress Republicans of "small government" oriented has the mainstream. The current US government is to expand the fiscal stimulus, but is where you want to stimulate the national borrowing motivation, it also previously financial resources serving as government bonds issued, is why has become a difficult situation if there is no cooperation of parliament.

Meanwhile, QE2 (quantitative easing second edition) is next month, finished as planned likely.

This time of QE2 in the United States, a global food prices, has led to soaring resource prices. Separately, it only but does not mean that reason, it is not caused mayhem, the government collapse in the Middle East and North Africa countries.

Anyway impact on the world, as long as they see after all the United States of America the unemployment rate, FRB will think "I whistling, dancing not" as was close to the state. Of course, it is not better a definitely better to do than not do, but the former Nippon same (but is also now), is currently in the United States and appear to have fallen into "stop-and-go" state, is worried.

Among such not dancing but whistling, FRB is next month, and exits for the ref to blow the whistle. The unemployment rate improvement was the goal of priorities top, unsatisfactory in that progress is not seen, what to do with the United States.
Japan is the euro, of course, the United States also available mean that standing in serious branch.

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