If you write to the Japanese media style,
"Every year, we went stacking the debt only! You have decided to collapse!"
There a feeling Te.
I want to say, the person who claims the simple theory of this kind, to understand the "must become someone in the current account deficit, any country not be a surplus of the current account," "absolute principle" that the and you wish to switch. Japan has continued to the current account surplus, it's the world's largest net foreign assets countries, there because somewhere in the country was the deficit of the current account in the past.
National economic problem, ↑ not talk in this kind of a simple theory.
Problem of this global imbalance is not in debt (foreign debt) balance yada, countries had become possible to stack the deficit, located in the "system" or "structure".
Originally, the currency of the current account deficit countries would fall direction, the country is becoming "exports is easy to, difficult to import." Exports easier, because import is why it is difficult, of course of the current account deficit (in particular, trade and services balance deficit) width is reduced, is not gradually towards the equilibrium (balance). At least, in the case of a floating exchange rate system of the country.
Expansion of the global imbalance of up to '08, the "imbalance is to expand" structure has been realized by three factors: where was the main.
◇ the United States is a real estate bubble, and achieve the expansion of adequate personal consumption and private housing investment to compensate for the deficit of the current account. Further securitization of housing loans, had been prevented from financial institutions the risk of domestic debt expanded by "export" to other countries. A result, economic growth of debt expansion and private consumption and housing investment center of the household is realized, the United States is a key currency countries it is possible to continue to buy things from other countries, the global imbalance has expanded.
◇ and leaned in the currency "Euro" the euro member countries is worth is maintained by the credit of Germany, it was continued the expansion of the trade deficit. Originally supposed to exchange rate acts as a stabilizer (stabilizer), but does not function in the case of the euro is a common currency, it became a result of distortion is accumulated.
◇ China is managed float system in '08 until the summer, later adopts dollar peg system (the dollar peg system), continued the expansion of unilateral current account surplus.
a result of the bubble collapsed, the United States got off the rudder to clearly reduce the current account deficit. Simply, any more, acknowledge the deficits in the current account, or the will to maintain the scale of the current of the current account deficit, it will for the domestic employment situation can not be improved.
Furthermore, in an environment where debt of households has continued to decrease, there is a need to seek create American jobs to "demand" abroad. Result is "in the next five years, to export to two times," State of the Union speech by President Obama in January is not lead to.
In addition, came the Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner-related follow-up in the G20 that was introduced yesterday.
"G20: Europe contribute to the world economy by austerity, the US is expanding domestic demand claims
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=jp09_newsarchive&sid=algnf9WO1zwg
South Korea, 20 countries and regions (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Busan was closing five days. After closing the Trichet of the European Central Bank (ECB), while the austerity policy in Europe is said to be the best way to contribute to the world economy, the US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged to expand the weak domestic demand in Europe It was.
Trichet told reporters after the meeting ended, "because it leads to the improvement of confidence, you will not be regarded as negative with respect to growth," about the impact of fiscal spending cuts remark with. In the "old industrialized countries", the need for such measures it told the obvious.
European Union (EU) is in response to the sovereign debt crisis, the euro area financial difficulties of countries € 750 billion a relief for the purpose of (about 84 trillion 500 billion yen) was introduced into the scale of the comprehensive financial support measures. Remarks of Trichet, something that clearly shows the eurozone of 16 countries determination toward deficit reduction. However, the message that US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has been sent to the G20, to trade surplus countries, including China and Germany, with the contents asking you to support the global economic recovery in domestic demand, the claim's contrast.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in another press conference, appealed to the world economy is in need of "expanding domestic demand by Japan and the European surplus countries". In addition the execution of the plan to stem the financial crisis on you and should be a "European top priority", ratified in a few days the parliament of the European countries, that the European rescue program is actually introduced adding that "people want want to see." (Snip)
On the other hand, EU administrative enforcement, lane committee of the European Commission (Economic and Monetary responsible) is, in this month G20 summit to be held in Toronto (Summit), hope that cooperation at the international level of fiscal stimulus release can be achieved is that and said, the description and the EU member states no later than 2011 have agreed to embark on reducing the fiscal deficit. Summit said, "there is a need to clarify the principle of execution exit strategy". "
Even if I read again, still more real recognition of Mr. Geithner, it will have think that is accurate than that of Trichet.
when the world you are in trouble less "debt expansion" or "demand" is, each country I do not think that it is to contribute to the growth to "improve the confidence" to reduce government spending. Simply, as a result of government spending of flow (GDP) has been scraped off, likely to end up only to further worsen the economy I think thick.
In addition, in the current account surplus countries in yesterday's article "China" I have never had, but it is not properly in the above article. (What about Although it is unknown whether Geithner that said, "China")
In addition, Geithner said the European financial crisis has said "top priority is the execution of the plan to stem the financial crisis", even not not say the "white austerity", as is symbolic in a sense It seems to.
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