Continued Qianmen of inflation, the collapse of the bubble economy of the rear gate

Now food, energy prices, And by the sharp rise in "housing costs", the Chinese people have got led to "not pay" situation also worked as a factory worker in urban areas. Result, is so people would return to rural Engineering is increasing.

To resolve this issue, raising labor costs in urban areas, and tightening financial, How can only revalue the yuan, it will result in any of the policy also hit the "another part" of the Chinese economy. Premier Wen Jiabao his own while in office (the remaining two years) hard landing (the collapse of the bubble economy, or social disruption caused by inflation rate soaring) Will believes that good if avoided, but I have a while forced to quite severe situation.

After all, the currency depreciation, personnel expenses depreciation, investment distorted that emphasis've been fling the growth path the Chinese economy is not there while rush to cul-de-sac by virtue of their "success factors".

Because yesterday's session worked to talk from ,, anyway '89 (Tiananmen Square incident) and '98 (Asian currency crisis), I think everyone who can join us too? Not had guests understand "cause and effect". Current status of China's economy, and I is that not began never in '08. Sense of history of this kind also, I think that it is essential in understanding about the economy. (So, the next book of the Korean economy this is about Japan's policy of "Tanaka later")

"China People's silver: the deposit reserve ratio 50bp hike - from the 20th

http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=jp09_newsarchive&sid=at8bxt8bDWhA

People's Bank of China (central bank) is the 14th, announced that raise the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks. In response to that and the new loans that foreign exchange reserves increased rapidly exceeds the goal, it was decided to reserve ratio hike. "

"China does not completely eliminate the new price control measures - China Securities Journal

http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=jp09_newsarchive&sid=aRN_udhyTd0E

China An increase in excessive inflationary pressure in the January-March (the first quarter), not completely rule out the possibility to take a new price control measures. China Securities Journal that I told to quote the story of ShuNozomi army deputy director of the Price Bureau of the China National Development and Reform Commission (Hatsuaratame-i). The deputy director, that showed the recognition of the inflation pressure compared to the same period last year so far this quarter "relatively large". "

More than the authorities of China deems as "inflationary pressure is relatively large", the reality is not likely "Totetsu is greater without inflationary pressure." One year (09 years) more than it was allowed to proceed a new loan of also 30 percent of the country's GDP, but is natural.

China has faced the problem of "Qianmen of inflation, and the rear gate bubble collapse of", but that "while singing monetary tightening, it is not Fumikome the overall monetary tightening (since the collapse of the bubble economy is scary)", the last minute of operation It has been strong. You can raise the interest rates little by little, we can raise the deposit reserve ratio, while says, such as "I tighten up more", "without collapsing the bubble, suppress inflation," it is not exploring the road (whether there is such a way How do, I do not know).

The problem, this is "I tighten up, would by tightening" method, it is that it does not completely suppress the real estate bubble expansion of China.

[Photo China 70 major cities real estate price trends (year-on-year)]

Mitsuhashi Takaaki official blog "blog to a new century of Big Brother" Powered by Ameba

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Real estate price increase rate of major cities in China, is certainly the year-on-year has been dropped. However, price is for a still-to-previous month has increased (slightly).

This and "still real estate prices go up" myth of the Chinese people, there is also that the new bank loans has exceeded the expectations of the authorities, but it seems there is also the inflow of foreign money. Direct investment in China in the period of January-November 2010 is, for real estate investments and $ 20.1 billion, accounted for 21.9 percent of the total. Moreover, a 48 percent increase in the rate of year-on-year, it is the extremely high. This ratio, has become more than twice the overall direct investment growth rate 17.7%.

As expected, the money of the United States of QE2 is overflowing from domestic, seeking investment destination seems flows to China real estate market (to the other, we are headed, even in crude oil and food).

Iceland 08 years before bankruptcy, it has raised the interest rate in order to suppress their own bubble. A result, overseas money flooded with the aim of its high interest rates, it has spurred the domestic economy overheating.

When China lifted interest rates in the bubble extermination, really what happens. "Foreign money" result element is increased that, "Qianmen of inflation, the collapse of the bubble economy of the rear gate" of the China problem solving is not has become increasingly difficult.