Forecast of Morgan Stanley

[You are using to know "national debt" mean? And shalt not see a "national balance sheet" in the household account book mentality]
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/money/20100816/215789/?bvr

Well, deflation of the economy advances, the has been lowered government bond interest rates, not only in Japan separately.

"US bonds (the 20th): '10 bonds, four weeks continuous high weekly - subsequent escape demand
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=aC6.S.FLtFYY
4 consecutive weeks rising 10-year bond rate in the weekly based in the US bond market. It became the longest upward phase in February or later. It has increased flight demand against the background of the global economic slowdown signs.
2 year bond yields decreased the lowest in the past 10-year bond yield was the lowest since March 2009. (Snip)
Barclays interest rate strategist, Mr. Michael Pound said, "There seems to be momentum to rise," it said, "the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is also likely to strengthen the quantitative easing".
According to BG Cantor Market Data, New York time 15:13 Currently, the 10-year bond yields 2.61%. 6 basis points from 2.67 percent the previous weekend (bp, 1bp = 0.01%) was reduced. '10 Bond prices (surface yield 2.625%, redeemed in August 2020) of the previous weekend ratio 16/32 rise 100 3/32. Yields 3bp rise in the previous day. And it became up three days the first time. It fell 38bp in the past four weeks.
2-year bond yield was 0.49% of the unchanged almost the day before ratio. Temporarily dropped to 0.4547 percent, it has updated the record low. 3.66% 30-year bond yields before weekend ratio 19bp decline. (Koryaku) "

"Euro 5-week lows, with Bundesbank president remarks
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=aQfD2N4dnhTs
In New York foreign exchange market, the euro fell to five-week lows against the dollar. Weber, Bundesbank president of the European Central Bank (ECB) Policy Committee members, regional economy this year was a reaction that showed a recognition that they need the support of the ECB. (Snip)
Weber president 19 days, according to the Bloomberg Television interview in Frankfurt, said, "Most of the discussion about the continuing exit strategy is considered to be made to concentrate in the first quarter." He added that "It is obvious that the necessary resumption of movement toward normalization of the procedure".
He received the remarks of president, lowering the yield on 10-year bonds and 30-year bonds of Germany in both past the lowest in the European bond market. Germany '10 bond yield is temporarily lowered to 2.26% 30-year bond yield is 1:08 basis points (bp, 1bp = 0.01%) decrease, below the 2.89%. (Koryaku) "

[Major countries of long-term interest rates (newly issued ten-year government bond interest rates) Trends August 08 - July 10]
http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_30.html#Kinri


Inadvertently but I did not notice at all, imperceptibly it is the long-term interest rate in Germany has been below that of the United States.
After the collapse of Lehman Brothers, long-term interest rates of US Treasury has reached 2 percent in instantaneous wind speed (or rather, fallen) memory is too strong, the European debt was not convinced that interest rate is higher than that of US Treasuries.

The above graph is a thing of the last month's end, but in Japan and the United States and Germany three countries both, who currently has lowered long-term interest rates than at that time. As you know Japan, and interrupt the one percent, the United States is 2.6 percent, has Germany become a 2.26%.

By the way, what might be a good story, too, Mr. James Cameron is a US interest rate strategy officer of Morgan Stanley,
"We missed a great opportunity this year to error expected, long US bonds (buying has) with respect to interest rates."
And, we have described in the customer report. In other words, Morgan Stanley It is why had expected Then rising interest rates of US Treasuries (prices fall).
Analyst's who of Japan, this way himself admit mistakes scene, I have because it does not see too much, I feel something fresh.

Morgan Stanley, the resilience of the American economy seemed to overestimate, by now the growing private demand for funds, it seems had expected the stock prices to rise. A result, weakens escape demand for US Treasuries, there that it is of the had expected long-term interest rates rise (government bond prices will fall). (According to the December 09 of Morgan Stanley forecast of long-term interest rates in the United States was the rise to 5.5%)

Then, deflation of the United States economy becomes clear, fear of double dip came in full swing.
Watakushi Although the United States was also expected to follow the path of "the collapse of the bubble economy ⇒ private funds sluggish demand ⇒ long-term interest rates decline", this is because it continued to watch the balance sheet of the household. (Liabilities of households, has declined for each announcement)
When looking at such as Morgan Stanley forecasts referred to as "bubble collapse ⇒ private funds sluggish demand ⇒ long-term interest rates decline", and a "deflation of the root" of the norm for the Japanese, not at all share in the global and do it I wish, I will think Nante.

Well, forecast of Morgan Stanley, though might it be that was just talk position.