Thursday, July 9, 2015

Proposal to the US government

What do you want to talk than, this ⇒ "story of the rating agencies."

In this blog, we will often pick up the topic of "Euro countries have been downgraded." I will write again, but the rating,
"To investors, for a particular bonds and other securities and the issuer, and represents the risk of payment of principal and interest is not carried out in the contract as the (credit risk) with a simple symbol, intended to inform widely" (Wikipedia)
There is. And that the payment of principal and interest is not carried out, that is the default (default). Rating and represents the default of possibility with the symbol, it means that is intended to be well-known.

What fundamentally question, when the rating agencies to rank the companies, it is a "conflict of interest problem" that the fee companies pay side. That is, when the rating company side does not like, rating agencies is a translation will lose customers.

Even more questions, for example global not so much selling government bonds to as Japan, that the evaluation of the rating agencies despite the independent and government bonds digestion, "rating agency side" has been rating the arbitrarily Japanese government bonds It is. The Japanese government, because it does not ask the rating to rating agencies, does not have anything even necessarily have paid the fee.

Nevertheless, pompously the rating agencies to downgrade the Japanese government bonds, it was fuss is leading newspaper,
"Japanese government bonds, once again downgraded!"
It is not doing as such, but the long-term interest rates in Japan are still remains the world's lowest. Domestic with excess savings state in deflation serious, because is not without funds demand of the private sector, it is natural.

That is, for the child and Japanese government bonds, the rating of the rating agencies to is a waste of time for the person in charge, there is not that a waste of paper of a major newspaper.

Questions about rating agencies, there are other are a wide variety.
Currently, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, etc.,
"It has been a downgrade, if you force the austerity with the aim of fiscal consolidation, GDP shrinks, finances worsened in tax revenues down, it is downgraded."
That, no it is located in the vicious cycle of ~.

That said, the first place and the rating agencies to be an international organization, it will not be in the presence of the public. It's the only of the private sector. What is sad, foreign governments, taken a foot to the "opinion" of the private sector, I think the policy must be confused. For and do you say, the public and government, such as Ireland, for now the rating agencies,
"To prohibit the rating of Japan's sovereign debt!"
I think that it is of such should be declared. That said, when you do such a thing, no longer government bonds bought in the international financial markets, and Will quickly so that the fiscal breaks down.

Indeed, is entangled in the net of "Global Financial", gasp, there mean that the current euro countries that are suffering. This is to escape from the network of the eye, before, Le Monde is "(to digest the government bonds in the country) that the Japanese imitate" as had written an editorial I think only that he's no.

In the rating agency problem, it was the worst, the first place is the assessment of the sub-prime loan-related securitized products became a trigger of the current global financial crisis. When the details, my book "dollar collapse! (Http://www.amazon.co.jp/dp/4883926583/)" and I'd like to read, but the rating agencies "production of securitized products, including the sub-prime loan "in, we were doing the match-fixing that proposes" as the rating increases "combination.

Due to its own proposal are combined "as the rating increases", the production has been securitized products, (is natural) of course is the best rating. American investment banks, the securitized products that were produced doing the match-fixing with the rating agencies, was Urisabaki to investment in Japan and overseas as a "AAA bond".

That said, eventually growing to up to unsustainable delinquency rate of subprime loans, in July 2007, the Moody's hundreds of subprime-related CDO (collateralized debt obligations), and at once downgraded from "AAA", and this time I crisis began. In other words, the rating agency is not that main culprit that caused the current global economic crisis.

Nevertheless, because human rating agencies not anyone taking responsibility, it is really amazing story, this time it is frightened to crisis downgrade to the United States government bonds.

"The United States of" AAA "rating, and change in outlook" negative "-S & P
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=aGnnPmrY.Z4Y
US rating agency Standard & Poor's (S & P), the long-term credit rating of the United States "AAA" rating outlook (the forecast) was a "negative" indicating that is higher than the upward potential directed downward. Tour of the correspondence to the budget deficit and debt increases, leaders is I have explained that there is a "serious risk" does not reach an agreement. (Koryaku) "

As I wrote earlier, it is the default possibilities and rating. Such as the US debt of almost 100% dollar-denominated to default, it does not get there the same way Japanese government bonds. (Inflation, but there will be a weakening of the dollar)

The US government, by all means emulating "Japan's Ministry of Finance (former)",
"Japan, such as the default of local currency government bonds of developed countries the US not be considered. Is it assumes any situation as the default. (By the Ministry of Finance)"
A written opinion that, I think that it want slammed to S & P.

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