Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Financial liabilities of American households

[Financial liabilities transition of American households (Unit: one billion US dollars) in 2003 - 2009]
http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_28.html#USKakei

Oh! Nantes archive the graph for the first time in the 20th.
Not had separately lazy to make a graph (for the national grand design, I made a ton), and did not write an entry that is entwined with the graph, or is there just did not have time to write. Well, it does not today also time but (at 7:55 rounds of bullet train, I will go to Sendai)

I think that you can see the tail and you'll look at the graph above, but at least until the end of 2009 point, the financial "liability" of American households will not go decreased. If the person who is our guest this blog, it is proposed that this is able how scary story basket understanding.

Debt reduction of households on the stock (national balance sheet) is easy to lead to spending reduction of household on the flow (GDP). And, personal consumption of American households, accounting for 70 percent of the country's GDP, is the world's biggest demand item.
Especially scary is the reality that mortgage balance of American households have continued to decline. In short, asset prices (real estate prices) subject to decline, household truncated spending, but I mean that began to repay the loan, very reasonable this behavior for households, to see macroscopically and this is very troubled not It is.
So-called, is the fallacy of composition.

In fact, the US government, even now continues the massive housing support, it has underpinned the real estate market. For the first time to people who buy a house in the country, it is the income transfer of approximately 800,000 yen (tax deduction) is carried out from the government. This only can be carried out a large-scale assistance, it is not the mortgage of American households have continued to decline. (At least until the end of 2009)

And, housing assistance by the government, trying to finally Mukaeyo the time of termination.

"IMF: US housing prices is fear of falling again, in support measures end - Financial Stability Report
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90920008&sid=a4jftJucC0ZU
In the United States, and ahead of the gradual completion of the housing support measures by the government, house prices are likely to fall again. International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the 20th, was pointed out.
US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) has implemented the residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program I have finished in March. Tax deduction measures for first-time home buyers by the government to end this month. IMF is the 20th published by international financial stability report (GSFR), an increase of foreclosures has been explained that increase the risk of the housing market.
The IMF in the report, in order to obtain a "real estate market is likely to be exposed to further pressure the future", "pause and tax credits for first time home buyers of foreclosure, the end of the MBS purchase program of FRB becomes the trigger , the decline in housing prices I have pointed out that "there is a possibility of re-occur. (Koryaku) "

Since the MBS purchase of the FRB has been completed, financial institutions will be less likely to naturally supply the mortgage. Furthermore, in chasing out, it is why home purchase assistance of the government is finished.
It pointed out that as per IMF, likely to greet the decline phase again American housing prices I think extremely high. After all, "that" that American households reduce the debt, to have taken the incredible action it's the status quo.
In short, although I say that the balance sheet recession, but the United States government is good if not underestimate the collapse of the bubble economy ....

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