Tuesday, July 7, 2015

American "financial" controversy

Well, the current Japanese economy biggest problem, deflation with monetary policy (inflation target, expected inflation rate, commitment) As a result of too much rely on, is the deadline for inflation target two years has elapsed, the inflation rate is 13 it is that it had returned to the level of May year. That is,
"Two years, I was not what you're doing ..."
There a story.

Points,
"Is it that even continue to finance expansion forever can not deflation!"
Toka, is not the kind of story (silly extremes). Is insufficient "demand creation effect" by monetary policy, and it is that you can not be measured in advance.

Who want Kabai deflation measures of the Abe administration will argue that profusely "stock prices have risen," but stock is not even in the service also in mono. Even if the rising stock price is much, directly to you not have any effect on the inflation rate.

"The more consumption stock price rises, inflation will rise."
And, although you'll have people who want to refute, it does that is known from a hundred years ago. Consumption increased by rising stock prices, but is a so-called wealth effect, the problem is of "the wealth effect caused by rising stock prices, nobody can not be measured," points such.

Soon, the Nikkei average is but I think that there is a high possibility of more than ¥ 20,000, depending on whether it will the wealth effect of "how much" occurs. That is, whether the demand is much more of, or can someone commit?

It is not possible to anyone. Or wealth effect caused by rising stock prices (demand creation effect) How much of the, knowing in advance I can not even God.

And what can not be "whether there is a demand creation effect of how much" everyone commits only monetary policy, it's a story that normally white combination of fiscal policy. However, the reality of the Abe administration has been desperately in spending cuts.
After all, Prime Minister Abe,
"Deflation is not a monetary phenomenon, lack of demand."
That, instead of the correct recognition, "deflation monetary phenomenon (the person in question is so I said in the Diet)," because of the understanding that was wrong with, there mean our country is in again fling the road of deflation.

A similar discussion is, in fact, have occurred in the United States.

"Before FRB Chairman: The controversy and objections Summers said the long-term stagnation theory
http://mainichi.jp/select/news/20150408k0000m020115000c.html
US Federal Reserve Board before Bernanke (FRB) Chairman opens the blog at the end of March, it has planted the economic debate. Opponent temporary, successor chairman and eyes have been Summers former US Treasury Secretary. "The United States and other developed countries, can not recover the growth potential in the monetary easing" to "long-term stagnation theory" Somers said that, refuted as "the United States is in it (to recovery) developing of full employment." From retirement last January through the first year, Mr. Bernanke began free speech is likely to boost the economy controversy.
There in the background, the pace of recovery of the US economy, slower than in the past, it does not proceed is to think also rise in wages is that the "mystery" is economists do not cut answer. One of the focal point, effect of monetary easing. Long-term stagnation theory, is viewed as the effect of lack of investment and excessive savings in developed countries, fell into a structure that the central bank is unable to fully stimulate the economy even if the monetary easing. For this reason Mr. Summers has advocated government spending and deregulation.
Bernanke said, after complained of a "track record" of its own chairman era such as employment improves, the recovery pace is slow described as temporary factors that "(after the Lehman shock) aftermath of the financial crisis." If the central bank is Hikiagere a price target (inflation target), the minute, has the effect of substantially reducing the interest rate, and claimed to be able to stimulate the economy.
"I price target is always reliable, there is room for discussion," Summers said even his own blog as, he wanted to point out that the effect does not increase the central bank. For the fiscal stimulus that Mr. Bernanke was questioned "(interest rates are low, the country's) debt repayment is very're cheaper," I stressed. "

In short,
"Monetary policy only OK"
If, for Bernanke before FRB chairman that claim, the former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers,
"It should be a combination of insufficient. Fiscal stimulus in the financial measures"
And, it means that refuted.

Although you'll know you, Mr Bernanke by monetary policy,
"By lowering the real interest rate, it is possible to stimulate the economy"
It is a position that.

I also wrote many times, but in inadequate work conditions, real interest rates would be what percentage, but management does not increase the capital investment. And do you say, nominal interest rates aside, such as managers who make an investment decision by looking at the real interest rate, does not have in this world. "No, there!" Once you and the person who claims there were, that person would have never was doing real business.

After all, "or work (= demand) is enough, or insufficient" problem is, Summers said considered "insufficient",
"Because that unusually low interest rates, the government of the now do I create a demand in the fiscal stimulus."
And, it is not presents a Watakushi both with the same solution (solution).

Japanese media,
"The government of debt (national debt) if Kaitore the Bank of Japan, it is not going to happen, but such has disappeared to. Financial collapse"
And at the same time not try to Hojiyo all about, about deflation measures, for some reason,
"If further expand monetary policy ..."
And, it is through the path from the "monetary policy expansion" to "demand creation", endlessly the same thing (and, the wrong thing) we repeat. In short, it is to try to ignore the financial (although would be the influence of the Ministry of Finance).

(Also the United States) All you need is the current in Japan, rather than monetary policy expansion, it is the demand creation through public spending. And, the "reality" that the same debate is happening in the United States, now, the Japanese people and I think I should know.

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