Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Falling prices and monetary tightening

"January US CPI: rise 0.2%, the core decreases's first 82 years
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90920000&sid=aKjASQI1RGk4
Consumer prices in the US in January, but rose from the previous month, the increase rate was lower than the market expected. The core index, excluding food and energy, fell for the first time since 1982.
US US consumer price index in January Department of Labor announced on the 19th (CPI, seasonally adjusted) rose last month by 0.2%. Rise was the 5 consecutive months. Rising fuel costs have affected. economists median forecast of Bloomberg News summarized was rising 0.3%.
The core index, excluding food and energy in January and decreased 0.1 percent compared to the previous month, became the unexpected negative. New automobiles and clothing, it was reflecting a decrease in the residence costs. Lowering of the core index since December 82. The survey of Bloomberg had been expected and the rise of 0.1%. (Koryaku) "

US consumer price index in January 2010 is composed of a pair the previous month by 0.2% increase below the market expectations, towards the core price index (minus the food and energy), to negative the first time since '82 It became.
When I read this news, the Watakushi knew, such as the United States of situations in which only half of the monetary base does not increase in the money stock,
"In short, in the Jan deflation!"
And, it is not thought, but in such as the Japanese media,
"Although the continued economic recovery in the United States, prices are in a stable state."
It is reported that such is what you've instinctively thought, "Hmmm ...". Exactly, what is unspeakable.

The day before of the Labor Department of the consumer price index announcement, FRB announced the raising of the official discount rate. (Note: FF interest rates, it is not a raising of the so-called policy rate)

"FRB of the discount rate hike: the sending a clear signal to the emergency measures release
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90920008&sid=aXKwfMZW3nlI "

For "dollar collapse!" As I wrote, too, or rather FRB America is the motto the "monetary policy financial market center", former Japan was a good "monetary policy of the window lending center", only "emergency It is not being positioned as a measure ". The financial markets center, in the style of banks to raise funds mainly from the financial markets, is a window loan will style banks to raise funds mainly from the central bank (in terms of the Japan Bank of Japan).
During this window loan, interest rate of the money that is borrowed from the central bank is not called "discount rate".
FRB after the outbreak of the subprime crisis, the money to the "emergency measures" as domestic financial institutions lending, that is has expanded its lending window. This decision of the discount rate hike, the FRB,
"" Window loans as an emergency measure "will end soon."
It is not a signal that.
In addition to raising the official discount rate, FRB to end the purchase of long-term US Treasury bonds in October last year, and also the purchase of the March this year MBS and GSE bonds (bonds that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has issued-security) It has been scheduled to end.
The point the United States but is not turned to "monetary tightening", under the deflation that price does not rise, whether this decision is the really appropriate. For many years, as suffered people of Japan in deflation, it is not not help but think that the honest "all right kana".

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