Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Japan of continued US economy

[A second time Greece bankruptcy and ground four to make doubling the Japan misjudge the essence from confuse "government debt" a]
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/money/20100802/215663/?bv

FRB (Federal Reserve Board) to open the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) 10 days, future, for such redemption (money is repaid) has been going FRB held MBS (mortgage backed securities), from 2 years We decided to re-invest in the 10 years of long-term US debt.

Even I wrote, because what do not know somehow, let's look at a concrete graph.

[Balance sheet (asset side) of FRB transition (time in 2010 the end of July)]
http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_30.html#FRBBS

Above, the FRB balance sheet (asset side), is a graph showing to "whether have much owns what assets". Lehman shock previously FRB of assets that had been hovering at around $ 900 billion is, will we can confirm that it has soared to boundary September 09.
In order to address to the crisis in the financial markets, is not such as lending to financial institutions has increased dramatically during this period.

In addition, starting 09 March the purchase of long-term US bonds in May, even then the GSE (government-based housing finance institution. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) guaranteed, input purchase of the issued MBS has surged. FRB will be to supply the "money (strictly liquidity)" to the financial markets instead of US government bonds and MBS, it is why has continued to prevent the dysfunction of buckling and financial markets of the economy. In short, it is quantitative easing.

This is quantitative easing, but the purchase of long-term US Treasury has already ended. Also, because we are redeemed MBS and government support agency securities in the future (repayment), the monetary base of the entire financial market in this state will continue to decrease. for now it becomes a monetary tightening, to purchase long-term government bonds with money that is repaid from such as MBS, it is not decided to maintain the balance sheet in a more increase form the liquidity.

When the FRB has raised the official discount rate in February,
"Sitting! Tsu or exit strategy!"
And, although I have scared, received the recent US economic slowdown, FRB is as determined procrastination of the exit strategy.

In yesterday's FOMC, it is deferred while induction goal also from 0 to 0.25% FF interest rates have been determined. There a continuation of the zero interest rate policy.

"Treasuries: '10 bonds 16-month low yield, in the FOMC re-investment decision
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=aokF3q8rFWrs
US Treasury rate rise. US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which was opened in the 10th, decided to reinvest the redemption of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in long US Treasuries of the period. In response to this US bonds were bought.
'10 Bond yield fell below 2.75% for the first time since April 2009. FOMC said in a statement, "pace of recovery in production and employment is suggesting that it has slowed in recent months." In addition to was, "the pace of recovery of the economy for the time being, likely to be moderate than had been expected so far is it have pointed out that high. " Before FOMC's announcement, it is performed three-year bond bid (issuance $ 34 billion), but the highest bid yield was the lowest ever. (Koryaku) "

In the FOMC statement,
"Pace of recovery in the economy for the time being, is likely to be moderate than had been expected up to now. In order to help support the economic recovery of price stability in the flow, mortgage collateral of agency bonds and government agency issued By reinvest the redemption fund of securities to long US Treasury of the period, the Committee to maintain a constant securities FRB-owned "
Once, it was described.

In response to the determination of the FOMC, US Treasuries are bought, long-term interest rates and the dollar fell together. Long-term interest rates reduced government bond purchase decision of the FRB, for government bond prices rose, the dollar decline and the zero interest rate policy continues, I is not that because of the quantitative easing continue.

US government bond purchases termination by FRB of last year in October, this year MBS purchase termination due to the January of the FRB, the official discount rate hike in February, the end and of various economic measures that were subjected to March-April, the United States in quick succession is "exit because it was off the rudder in the direction of the strategy ", honest, and I thought what will be. But, by the recent economic rapid deceleration, FRB again, seems to have steered in the direction of monetary easing.

However, in any event, it is Japan of the US economy is why not help think as has been steadily progressing.

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