[July 2010 edition Case Schiller index ten city comprehensive / twenty city comprehensive]
http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_30.html#CSI
The case Schiller index, is an American house price index Standard & Poor's to publish. The January 2000 Place and 100, you can see the change in house prices.
In this blog, mainly graph of ten city comprehensive and twenty cities overall, we look at the American housing market.
If you look at the graph, American house prices will peak out in the second half of '06, it is seen as bottoming out in early '09. But the recovery of housing prices since '09 the beginning, due to the housing assistance by the government (housing acquisition deduction 8,000 dollars), it is not very in, but not a self-sustaining recovery.
Housing acquisition credit has ended in April of this year. However, the remnants seems to remain for a while. Index of July 2010 also I was picked up slightly, but this also available in still that of the large impact of the housing acquisition deduction.
"US housing price index: July growth slowed, end the influence of the tax deduction
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=aNtI154S52NE
20 US house prices in the city in July, rising pace slowed in the same month in the previous year. Drop in sales that has received the end of the home buyers for tax deduction measures by the government has been reflected.
20 US cities were targeted in July of the US Standard & Poor's (S & P) / Case Schiller house price index and a 3.2% rise in the same month last year, it stayed in low growth since March. The median forecast of economists survey by Bloomberg put together was a 3.1% rise.
Index is the average of three months, the number of July announced this time, still contains the effect of 5, the June sales impact seen with the tax deduction measures. (Koryaku) "
Problem is, after two months the effect of the housing acquisition deduction disappears, it's what is happening in the September case Schiller index. Of course, it is not without doubt to decline, but not become a problem is "how much fall either."
Important indicator of the American economy, will be the three of "employment", "housing", "personal consumption". Employment stops still high, but housing is down in the government support the end, what about personal consumption. As you know, personal consumption of the United States is more than seven percent of the country's GDP, is the world's largest demand item.
"The US consumer confidence index: February since the lowest, both present situation and expectations worsen
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=aL0fipv8Pmk4
Consumer confidence index in the US fell to 7-month low level in September. It is a growing pessimism is for the labor market.
US consumer confidence index of the private Conference Board research organizations announced in September and 48.5, down from the previous month of 53.2. It fell to the lowest since February. (Snip)
And the present situation index is 23.1, low level for the first time in seven months. Previous month was 24.9. The ratio of respondents and is currently sufficient employment is 3.8%, year-to-date of the lowest. Currently, the answer is difficult to obtain a job rose from 46.1 percent the previous month of 45.5%. (Koryaku) "
Employment, housing, consumption, until blatant in the case of the United States, will mutually influence each other. If the employment recovery, start moving American strongest domestic demand business of housing, upward consumption if the house price rises, the largest demand world starts to rotate. Starting around the world's largest demand (consumption), it is why the unemployment rate continue to improve.
Conversely, the housing industry is to have no reason to be booming in a situation where employment environment has deteriorated, no upward consumption. If housing and consumption is restored, it is not that unlikely even unemployment rate improved.
"Double-dip" "No, double-dip recession avoidance" and, although you have the recent US economy optimism and pessimism interlaced, employment, housing, more than three of consumption is not Uwamuka, while repeating the up-and-down it's that go toward the "stagnation" will think the correct answer.
Subsequently, Ireland, which has been urgency is finally situation.
Consider the "Irish government" considered impossible "is also, in the Anglo-silver bonds
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=jp09_newsarchive&sid=ab0s2cVLfQWw
Irish Finance Minister Lenihan, the default (default) for the nationalization of the Anglo-Irish Bank of priority debt might have to be changed the idea that "not even consider". Securities companies to the London-based, the Evolution Securities pointed out.
Ireland government consistently, has been declared a 16.5 billion euros (about 1 trillion 870 billion yen) default of significant Anglo-silver priority bonds impossible. Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday, was reduced to the lowest of "Baa3" in the investment grade of the senior debt rating of Anglo silver.
Evolution of strategist, in the report of Gary Jenkins said the 28th, he wrote the "what began to get may not be there, or he either whether the rating agencies are wrong." (Koryaku) "
It is hard to understand article, downgraded against short Moody's Anglo Irish Bank, which was introduced yesterday, it is intended that incorporates the default of the bank,
and "also to default, do Ja right? or else if not possible, to ... wonder Which whether Moody's is wrong."
It is a story.
What. Downgrade by Moody's, of course to increase the credit risk of the Anglo Irish Bank, will be to "close" it to default. The Irish government, soon "rating agencies, Na~tsu motherfucker!" Or would not come been feeling that. (Reference: "Irish government of feeling" http://ameblo.jp/takaakimitsuhashi/entry-10636985939.html)
The first place and the rating agencies, it is an organization to assess the default risk of loans. Very act of "downgrading" of the rating agencies, it's a reality that would increase the default risk of loans.
Of Europe and the world is swayed by rating agencies is their selfish, Japan I think the off soon it's time to be reviewing this "strange system". To begin with, at the time of receiving the money from the other party to the rating, the business of rating agencies is not sure that it is a conflict of interest.
"Ireland Foreign Minister: Do not use the European Relief Fund" absolutely "- the self-confidence to overcome
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90920012&sid=aysPubXr7spA
Irish Foreign Minister Martin, the use of European relief program statement to exclude "any way". The country's budget we added that to ensure the financial resources until the middle of next year.
Martin Foreign Minister May 28, in an interview in New York, saying that there is confidence to overcome the present situation. "Although it is clear that difficult, the need to invoke such a mechanism is absolutely no," he said.
The Foreign Minister also, Ireland we were denied the observation about the default (default) of senior debt of Anglo Irish Bank, which was nationalized. "
Processing cost of the Anglo Irish Bank in some unknown circumstances, even if it is said to be "budget is ensured", it will in trouble. That said, the situation that the foreign minister must speak bullish, you can understand. And do you say, if you see the Foreign Minister is a decent remark, it will become envious even in Ireland.
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