Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Continue Pac-Man's mouth is going to open

"Consumer prices rose minute, real wages are falling, including reduced consumer price inflation in June 14 or later, that amount, have gone down also decline pace of real wages"
Phenomenon is a representation of a. Proceeding in the policy of this state, probably in April Koakoa CPI is (also possibly to Once core CPI) will drop to minus,
"What, I'm deflation measures of the Abe administration was what ..."
It will want to talk about that.

Then, if you do not hit the correct policy, although the inflation rate is sluggish in the negative, more wage is lowered to, also real wages and you will come back to deflation type real wages decline that fall. Consumption tax hike, by government spending cuts, and to deflation of Japan. Exactly, it is the reincarnation of the Hashimoto Cabinet.

However, Abe Cabinet and Hashimoto Cabinet has also hit different policy. Second Abe later began regime, whopping 5% more than the real wage index fell, on the opposite side of the people to poverty reduction, only one, Abe Cabinet I has made great economic performance (it is ironic It is not). A great track record, rather than rising stock prices, in the government bond purchases by the Bank of Japan,
"I reduced the substantially country debt"
You in there thing.

If this fact is Shirewatare properly "correctly", there always think with the patient's "country Roh debt gar" syndrome is reduced.

Already, when compared with September 2012, substantial debt of the government has been reduced more than 50 trillion yen. Of course, does not mean the government has to repay the debt, let bought out the government bonds to Japanese banks subsidiaries, it is a translation have gone to virtually "Chara" the debt. (However, for some reason not reported anyone this fact. I there a strange country, really)
Since 2014 funds circulation statistics of the end of the year (preliminary) was announced, I tried to make a graph of the example.

[2014 year-end point (preliminary) Japan government bonds owner Breakdown (total 885 trillion yen)]


http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_49.html#15matsu

By the way, one quarter before the graph here.

[September 30, (preliminary) 2014 Japan government bonds owner Breakdown (total 860.6 trillion yen)]
http://members3.jcom.home.ne.jp/takaaki.mitsuhashi/data_49.html#Kokusai

Steadily "Pac-Man's mouth" is you will see that have gone open.
The above is a graph of the "government bonds, TakaraToru-sai", but here to add the treasury bills, it is likely that an just 25% of the debt of the central government Bank of Japan holds. Quarter of the so-called "country of debt" is, I have ended up with possession of the Bank of Japan, a subsidiary of the government.

Of course, the Japanese government does not mean that to buy government bonds in the Bank of Japan in order to Bobiki the debt separately. The lower the interest rate, in order to expand the "expenditure to become income" of consumption and investment, it is not that take the monetary policy to the Bank of Japan.

Nonetheless, 0.32% government bonds interest rates at the moment a ten-year. No more, it falls room rarely.
Is referred to you or with, precisely because poor work (demand) is in deflation, companies are not not the investment. Long-term interest rates it would be 0.1% but would be 0.3%, but as long as there is no demand in front of, the private sector does not increase the investment.

All in all, during the liquidity of our money is raised (in short your money in the bank is splashing water sound), capital investment and housing investment demand is insufficient, we went our money flows in financial markets. Exchange is bought, stocks are bought, is why the Nikkei average has risen.

In addition, is a translation pension, mutual aid, direct ownership, Kampo, and the Bank of Japan's funds have been put into the stock market recently.

"Bank of Japan, the driving force behind the high stock
http://jp.wsj.com/articles/SB10030317691824024149004580511651086175856
Purchases of aggressive exchange-traded funds by the Bank of Japan (ETF) is supported by a rise in Japanese stocks, stock prices have reached a high level for the first time in several years in recent months. But in internal Bank of Japan, Tour of rapid stock appreciation and the role of the Bank of Japan that prompted it, they are recruited discomfort in part.
Since launched a Haruhiko Kuroda President was appointed in March 2013 "different dimension" monetary easing, the Bank of Japan has been greatly expanded the purchases of ETF.
According to the record of the Bank of Japan, the last two years to enter the approximately every two days the stock market, it has purchased considerable 2 trillion 800 billion yen capitalization index-linked ETF. This purchase is highlights the differences with the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) and the European Central Bank (ECB). FRB and ECB, even if the bond purchases were carried out for both economic underpinning, direct purchase of shares has been postponed.
Analysts, as a factor that prompted the Japanese stocks rise in recent months, in addition to a large amount of buying by pension fund management operation independent administrative institution (GPIF), has pointed out that ETF purchases by the Bank of Japan was large. Such buying is overwhelmed selling individual investors, it was often over the demand slowdown of foreign investors. (Koryaku) "

For now, holdings of the Bank of Japan's ETF is is about 4 trillion yen strength, we believe that it does not get a choice but to expand in the future. The reason, in spite of the Bank of Japan purchases is already over 20% of government bonds, (because it targeted government demand, is natural but) prices downward trend rather is, no more government bonds GaiIri is, worsen the management of the bank (yes already but) it is for.
Since there is no that did anyone in the past, such as Why can not The fact that Pishiri~tsu in number, at the time when the government bonds held by the Bank of Japan has exceeded the "domestic banks" in the figure above, "first" comes into view You mind. In other words, it is why government bond purchases to reach the limit.

Nevertheless, quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan is "commitment", we do not get forced to continue. All in all, ETF purchases will increase. In addition, at the same time for the Japanese government aims to "primary balance surplus" (and in the short term), prices might not rise.
So, the future of Japan,
"Prices fell, more than that lowers the nominal wages, real wages decline, people are poverty reduction"
When,
"Bank of Japan's monetary base is entirely expanding, I push up asset prices."
That is once but is likely to rush to never our country has experienced situation.

Indeed, there a story like going to "r> g" of Thomas Piketty in the land. As long as the government does not re-cut the rudder in the correct policy of "demand creation through fiscal stimulus", it will be that the divergence in Japan income (real wages, GDP, etc.) and assets (stock price, etc.) continue to earnestly expanding.

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