The end of the rating system

US Treasury bonds has been downgraded. Do say, S & P has downgraded the US debt.

I've been talking in economic discussion of channel cherry tree, this time of the United States federal government's debt limit issue in "the United States, finally Tsu ~'s default!" Such as yelling at has been Japanese media (such as the Mainichi Shimbun), the whip also pole ball but it is not, and I thought I wonder whether "government of the office is closed", "become weaker dollar," three of "The US debt is downgraded," there is a possibility, and. However, the really S & P to downgrade, it is a surprise.

"Prediction is difficult, the influence of the US debt downgrade
http://www.afpbb.com/article/economy/2818612/7607244?utm_source=afpbb&utm_medium=topics&utm_campaign=txt_topics
Major US rating agency Standard & Poor's (S & P) is the 5th, was cut for the first time ever, the rating of US debt from "AAA" to "AA +". It is a sign indicating that the reliability of the US debt ability to pay has fallen.
Outstanding of US debt that has reached this week 14 trillion 600 billion US dollars (about 1140 trillion yen) is, and 100 percent in the gross domestic product (GDP) ratio, was almost the same level as Italy. The Italian government bonds have been sold from the concerns of default (default).
The US government is currently also continue to rent spending 40 cents per $ 1. While the US economy is scarcely grow, it is not possible to obtain revenue required for fiscal consolidation.
China is 1 trillion 100 billion US dollars (about 86 trillion yen), Japan, etc. owns US Treasuries of 900 billion US dollars (about 71 trillion yen), the US dollar and US Treasury presence of very large. Default concern of the US government would give concern to the world financial system. Given the magnitude of the role the US economy and the US dollar plays in the world, the United States debt downgrade should spread to the entire world economy.
However, the US dollar and US bonds have been held widely in the world, we are supporting the financial and trade of the world. Many analysts in the grounds it is, at least in the short term impact of the downgrade I think limited.
■ past None same example
In theory, the government of the country in which government bonds have been downgraded, funding costs rise compared with countries with a rating of AAA as of Germany. This can play a role of alert to fiscal consolidation. In addition, the currency value of the downgraded countries, the economy falls to strong other countries currency.
It is difficult to predict the impact of the US debt downgrade. Japan twice in the past 10 years, pulled down the rating of government bonds. The rating of the current Japanese government bonds more than 200% in the public debt GDP ratio in the "AA-", but is still raising funds at very low interest rates. (Koryaku) "

In reality, downgrade of the S & P is not a such as "sign indicating that the lowered reliability of the US debt payment capability" will only signs indicating "end of rating system."

As in the AFP article,
"Japan twice in the past 10 years, pulled down the rating of government bonds. The rating of the current Japanese government bonds more than 200% in the public debt GDP ratio in the" AA- ", but still the money at very low interest rates It has raised. "
More than an exception exists that, it is clear that there is a field that the current rating system does not function.

After all, I than the downgrade has been the United States government bonds, further two-stage rating is low interest rates of Japanese government bonds, it has remained the world's lowest. In other words, the current rating, in particular rating on sovereign debt,
"The government," who from "" The currency owe money on what denominated "?"
"Results, How is the reality of the level of interest rates?"
Without taking into account the just mean in such a percentage of GDP the debt of the government has likened the default possibility of debt, it is not extreme surreal even.

"The government has to borrow money in the local currency from domestic financial institutions. A result, long-term interest rates in the world at least."
And of the country,
"The government is denominated in foreign currencies from financial institutions of foreign countries, owe money in a common currency. Long-term interest rates relatively high."
Country, obviously, but is not different from the nature of the debt problem, rating agencies do not seem to take into account the above-mentioned differences.

So, in 2002 the "Treasury-like" of Japan, in order to pursue the abnormalities of the above rating system, is not who have purposely slammed a written opinion to the rating agency.

Since it becomes a tremendous harassment to the Ministry of Finance, diffusion! Diffusion!

"Foreign rating agencies addressed written opinion summary
http://www.mof.go.jp/about_mof/other/other/rating/p140430.htm "

Come to think of it, it is why the other day (8/1), but in swamphen seminar Aso former Prime Minister also had been talking about the written opinion of, who knows you know. When politicians everyone, or the majority of the population was aware of the above opinion, I think really the Ministry of Finance can continue the current abnormal tax increase route.

In any case, the abnormality of the rating system, because such as A Mr the "Treasury-like", by all means, please read. (So, please diffusion)

For the United States government bonds, but will go up some interest rates, excess savings of the domestic rolled into, it is expected to be rather become Japan pattern that interest rates would lower.

Later today, it is your post from Takashi Nakano teacher.

---------- De-nuclear power plant by natural energy is impossible (Nakano Takashi, Kyoto University Graduate School of Engineering, Associate Professor) --- (first appearance "Nikkei Veritas" issue August 7)

◆ de-nuclear power plant is extremely difficult due to natural energy. Unless completely ignore the economic efficiency, it is not possible to secure the amount that can substitute for nuclear. Even look at the Germany of purchase system is a developed country, it is hard to say that was successful. If you aim to de-nuclear power plant in earnest, it's thermal power generation should be increased.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan appealed for "de-nuclear dependence", showed a willingness to establishment of renewable energy special measures bill. This bill is a system that requires that you purchase at a high price the power of natural energy to power companies, it has been introduced in such as Germany.

But in Japan, de-nuclear power plant by natural energy is extremely difficult. European high latitude, after a strong westerly blows in a stable manner, because the flat often, wind power has spread. But Japan is a wind is weak and unstable, even greater risk of typhoons and lightning strikes. Land a mountainous, recently have come also noise problems. Location location suitable for economical wind power generation is very small.

Sunlight, more than the high 40 yen per 1 kwh power generation cost. In plain high less land prices in Japan, to suitability of economic large-scale solar power plants is small, only the use of the building of the roof there is a limit. Hydropower and geothermal. Biomass power generation is also Japan is strict, such as constraints on the country, it would be quantitative and economic limit.

Even Germany, which is said to be natural energy developed countries, out of the amount of power generated in 2008, coal-fired power accounted for about half, while nuclear power is about 23%, and Japan and the same degree, wind power is about 6 percent, sunlight It was only about 1%.

Since natural energy constraints are severe, unless completely ignore the economic efficiency, it's difficult to secure the amount that can be replaced by nuclear power. It is, of course, there should be priority to the non-economic value, such as safety and the environment than the economy, Even so, wind and solar is cost-effective too bad. In particular, an increase in electricity prices during the recession, such as now, it can not be ignored because a serious blow to the people's lives.

The quality of power is also a problem. Nuclear power plant is functioning as "base load power" that continues to power in a stable manner regardless of the day and night. However, wind and solar power is not stable output is affected by the weather, occupancy rate wind power is 15-25%, solar power remains in the 10-15%. That is, the output is unstable wind power, solar power - not a "Besuro de Power" serving as the primary alternative. Rather, the output is spread unstable wind and light power generation, expansion of thermal power generation as a backup is rather necessary. Stabilization of output by the batteries, even flipped up the cost.

In short, where you increase the wind and solar power in the purchase system of natural energy, it is not a little de-nuclear power plant. If if aim to de-nuclear power plant in earnest, it's a thermal power generation should be increased.

Even if the buyback program of Germany, it is hard to say that was successful. Germany this system is full-scale introduction from 2000, in particular purchase price of sunlight is set as high as nine times less than the wholesale electricity price. However, as mentioned earlier, the proportion of sunlight to total power generation amount of power is only about 1%.

According to the line-Westphalia Institute of Economic Research, purchase cost of sunlight, also it becomes about 7.2 trillion yen in total up to 2010. Etc. This in addition to indirect costs for the stabilization of power, according to the estimates of Berurin'e University, about 51.2 billion yen at the time in 2006, at the time in 2020 that swell up to 379.5 billion yen. It cost-effectiveness is too evil. For this reason, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has also recommended a policy change of the buyback program of sunlight in 2007.

Moreover, 5% of the share of solar cells in Germany accounted for Chinese companies, as a whole foreign companies 70%, hardly contribute to job creation in Germany. After all, Germany last year, reduced the purchase price of solar power generation power 12-13%.

For solar cells, in recent years, reducing the cost and inexpensive labor force China manufacturers to rise, China for about 60% of the world's solar cell production volume of 2010. Taiwan occupied (Japan is about 10%).

Therefore, the introduction of the buyback program of natural energy is let father of overseas manufacturers, fear also that do not increase the domestic employment. The burden of the consumer due to an increase in the electricity rates must also be taken into consideration. Because there is no meaning in employment to increase by depriving the consumer demand of the people.

There is also the following problems. Household solar power is currently one in Daiyaku 2 million yen, limited to relatively wealthy people is to buy this. On the other hand, electricity everyone to use is not limited to the income level. Because of this, that if the purchase cost is in addition to your electricity charges, to pay a portion of the electricity rate that was collected from the low-income earners to the wealthy who installed solar power, is regressive income redistribution is done become.

Buyback program of natural energy is, despite its image, is to de-nuclear power plant does not contribute little, there is a possibility that does not produce the domestic employment. Some even further increase regressivity the burden of consumers suffering from recession. Large-scale fiscal stimulus for the disaster area reconstruction, securing the power supply, and then neglected the high policy of urgency such as the convergence of the nuclear accident, to obtain prohibited lamented the current state of politics that the introduction of such a system is priority No.
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