I wrote several times in the past, the US debt downgrade by this time of the S & P,
"America is finally to default!"
It is not a story like. Rather talk a true reverse, in private (such as households) is striving to reduce debt, even the government is no longer Fumikire to the "necessary fiscal stimulus", the US economy has come out is a possibility to continue to "deflation" in the sense that, you not think that it is extremely serious.
Zero interest rates, despite the expansion of quantitative easing, private economic agents do not borrow money. Originally, not borrowed money under the "zero interest rate", to push forward the repayment of debt, under the capitalist economy is irrational talk. If each person is considered a "maximization of profit", in particular.
But after the collapse of the bubble economy, ie slumped asset prices on the balance sheet of each economic entity, if it fell into insolvency state, story will come like a change. After the collapse of the bubble, rather than the maximization of profit, each private economic entities, what that appropriated the surplus and earnings of income to the reduction of debt, we will talk about that rational.
The story of this neighborhood, "in economics revolution reconstruction bonds 28 trillion yen Japan's large revival! /" Talk this with Kinoshita Eizo teacher, please refer to.
While private economic agents continue to repay the gang debt, the government may not be able to expand the budget deficit, the national economy will come out the possibility of falling into serious deflation. A result, long-term interest rates rather sluggish, is why the rating of government bonds becomes meaningless by the rating agencies.
Also continue to increase the government debt, also rating agencies repeatedly downgraded, long-term interest rates in that country will not rise. After all, as a result of households and companies began to focus on debt repayment, because private capital demand has got depleted.
Further, after the collapse of the bubble, private economic agents such as households and companies, will continue to expand savings (debt repayment and deposit) let alone borrow money. A result, it is not will be going accumulated excess savings is a "money that is not turning in operation" on the basis of financial institutions such as banks.
Domestic and private sluggish demand for funds, more than that is full of excess savings in the hands of the bank, when the government tried to issue government bonds, it will be able to digest at very low interest rates. Anymore, but evaluation of the rating agencies would be, but would be AAA CCC, it is does not matter.
"Super-sluggish" what of the above deflation serious and long-term interest rates, it is what is referred to as so-called "Japanese disease". Confusion over the federal debt ceiling hike this time of the United States, and the S & P downgrade of the US was to the surface of the possibility of suffering from the disease in Japan.
FIG Japan and Trends in American long-term interest rates (unit:%)]
Mitsuhashi Takaaki official blog "blog to a new century of Big Brother" Powered by Ameba
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※ This month's number is a point August 15.
American long-term interest rates, fell rather after the downgrade of S & P, in this state is the first time in history likely to cut 2%.
Shadow of creeping US "Japan of" - "downgraded, zero interest rates
http://jp.wsj.com/Economy/node_289375
Government bonds are downgraded, zero interest rates is followed by the next two years -. US bond investors to confront the new reality is trying to learn from Japan's experience.
This month the 5th, Standard & Poor's (S & P) has downgraded the US long-term debt from the highest grade of triple-A, it announced that the US Federal Reserve Board in the 9th (FRB) will continue at least until mid-2013 the zero interest rate policy It did. Since then, it started the bond traders to review of the operational model, a lot, trying to lose the credit rating of triple-A in 1998, capitalize the Japanese experience to continue the near zero interest rate policy in '10.
Movement to compare the United States and Japan was also in the past. However, traders and investors, a common point of Japan and the United States have pointed out that there is no thing that became prominent so far. (Snip)
Strategist, the yield on US Treasury 10-year sees that there is a possibility to interrupt the 2 percent from the current 2.23% of within the next few months. '10 Bond yields in Japan has remained at 1.05% around for some time.
FRB is in response to the fact that announced the continuation of the zero interest rate policy in the 9th, also yield short-term government bonds decreased, and became Japan and the same level. The yield of 2-year bonds in Japan is approximately 0.15%, the United States is 0.18%. 1-year bonds in Japan is approximately 0.12%, the United States remains at 0.10%. (Snip)
However, have new similarities also emerged. One of them, the same way as 10 years ago in Japan, the United States is it that there is a possibility of tightening finances.
Japan's recession began in the early 1990s. Since the mid-1990s turned to economic recovery, policymakers implement the tax increases and spending cuts in 1997, as a result, Japan is to have reverted to the recession, the University of California, San Diego School of economists, Takeo Hoshi said.
The US economy the same direction as Japan, that have gone up even voice that concerned that than are heading in the direction of fiscal tightening is carried out from concerns over the budget deficit. Payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits measures that had been implemented for economic recovery, such as also expires approaching, from such a concern, economists have been forced to downward revision of economic forecasts.
Star said, short term continuation of the fiscal expansion, pointed out that in the medium term are fiscal consolidation is desired, said it is not easy to achieve both.
These circumstances, it's Bernanke FRB Chairman has become in looking to be held responsible to support the economy. Chairman, so far, has been working to actively avoid deflation, while taking advantage of Japan's experience as a warning.
However, FRB also hear the voice of the little you can do with monetary policy for economic recovery.
"The United States was not committed the mistake (Bank of Japan like). However, this is a problem that can not be solved by monetary policy alone," said Kuttner said. "
Indeed, that is required in the United States (Japan is also but) is, as you say star Mr.,
"The short term will be the continuation of fiscal expansion, the medium term is fiscal consolidation."
Such I. However, (or the world) in the country who do not know the concept of the fallacy of the so-called balance sheet recession and synthesis is too much, the government forced the silly choice of "short-term fiscal consolidation", resulting in a medium-term This is why it becomes impossible to finance reconstruction.
The story of this neighborhood, at the beginning economic debate of recent channel cherry tree, had been talk is Shishido teacher.
Note: 1/3 [economic debate] rush to danger waters! ? Global economy and Japan [Sakura H23 / 8/5]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDrN7tRsUg0&feature=relmfu
That said, there is also a different point in the United States and Japan. In other words, Japan is in the current account surplus countries, the United States is the current account deficit countries. In addition, although the US dollar is the key currency, the Japanese yen is different.
When taking into account the differences in this area, after all, we are now occurring in the United States the problem is not "Japanese disease", considered to be or not to be "American disease". And what is an American disease specifically. Currently, we're going to reveal in "2012 (tentative)" in writing.
Later today, it is your post from the "common room of Uncle" Yamamoto like that link is stretched to this blog bottom.
-------- Education civil service strategy - connect JAPAN main argument of this strategy --------
1, say that to go stretched the final national wealth, while the supply and demand of chasing the "synergy drive".
2, create a vortex of economy in the Northeast in the Synergy Drive, East reconstruction and, sucked up the victims were scattered across the country, we will change the rich land.
3, just from the economic measures, who was the economic measures while subjected to education, it can be expected and growth after the end of the supply capacity, an increase in the national wealth.
4, if the supply force Nobile, just than fill the gap, can beat a lot of earthquake measures and economic measures.
5, at the same time as the education, if charged with training and human network built by the Self-Defense Forces, it is possible to place the human resources that can respond to the earthquake in private various places, it is possible to respond quickly.
6, further, performs a megalopolis of the local city efficiency and major cities group, to carry out consolidation and prosperity at the same time.
7, Fujii Satoshi teacher if Nasaru advocated a "public works physical Fukoku theory with a focus on", Yamamoto proposed a "human Fukoku theory with a focus on education."
By performing two simultaneously, it is possible to realize a "rich Japan" which Mitsuhashi teacher desires.
1, the significance of the connect (connection)
The core competence of my education civil servants "synergy drive" this time, we want to talk about whether it through going to rebuild East and of deflation in Japan how. First, it would be appreciated refer to the "[grand design of national] Uncle version" that was presented last time.
"[Grand design of national] Uncle version
So, we will immediately let the beginning.
First of all I, now, what kind of thing is as being frequently need vision "reconstruction" and "toughening", I tried thinking What if possible to realize Yare, called.
And, the main answer you put in is thought out, it is a strengthening of the "ties between people", but the construction of "trust", has arrived in the fact that.
To see the people who survived that tragic disaster, and that there was a "connection" that socializing with neighbors to each other, and helping each other, you have a number of people that were able to survive barely.
Also in the confined person, survived without being swallowed up in despair about strongly believe was the person that help is coming, you there are many cases that.
It is destroyed everything, what when you have lost all, is the essence of human toughness, and "lead it," "unity thing to", and it is possible to exert a "to believe" more than anything, pull out the strength of as a human It survived Te, and appeared to have been a revival of power.
The first place, also "economy" necessary to now victims, originally or piece of paper to be "money", various notes, stock certificates and the like to believe that it is "a thing of value", is the connection between people crystal "market" This is the act of trading in and the "distribution".
Kyoto University Professor Fujii Satoshi teacher .. looking up .., Bank of Japan and the government of the Accord (cooperation) is also, I think integrated system of after all connect (reliable connection).
If so, once again, to regain the virtues "Advanced trust" with the Japanese, why do not we try a reconstruction while regaining the essential toughness of the people.
This proposal book, while centered on connection "Connect" and trust "trust" between people, and toughening something, I think I want to said, how can we reconstruction and continue to rebuild.
2, disaster area reconstruction with a focus on education civil servants
(1), education civil servants and the
Last time, it was made lightly explain the mechanism of education civil servants, this time I would like to explain more details.
First, let's start from lightly recap.
Because education officials, hired the unemployed as "extraordinary public servant" for a limited time, receive a salary while the vocational training, to shop as a consumer.
Thus, since we increase the consumption demand without increasing the supply capacity, It was a great way to fill the deflationary gap.
Then, when the economy came more and more demand to recover, the human resources that was strengthened by receiving vocational training to private employment, is the strategy that the inflation by creating a wall of supply capacity.
Now, using that education civil servant, I think that it would like to the reconstruction of the Great East Japan Earthquake.
In the process, so I would like to also describes the "Synergy Drive", which is the true form of education civil servants, and We would appreciate it if you would read to the end.
(2), the labor force and consumer demand of profitability ignored
Well, let's get back to the description.
This education civil servant, I think at first glance some people you think "Do not vocational training," but it is a not refer to a part of the "education" of the first half, you are missing part of the "public servants" in the second half.
It is and says what it, and the last because it has been educated in the position of "public servants", it's what it referred to as "issues an instruction as a civil servant, thereby it is able to comply."
In, Not likely out of the instruction.
And "the rubble processing and dissemination work in the affected areas thoroughly accomplished, whether complete reconstruction of the East".
If this, without worrying about the efficiency and supply and demand competition, you can perform any number of tasks that can not be taken at all profitability.
Those that say that the private sector, since it issued a profit is the first employee salary can pay organization, it is what you do not want to do the work that is not profitable.
Moreover, since must seek efficiency, you can not you are not going to money, even you know.
However, if civil service, so you can work with profit ignoring, it is a disaster area from the corner to be able to thoroughly repair to the corner.
In yet hire the local people as a treatment counselor, while achieving the "hometown reconstruction desired by the community", you'll be going rich also affected areas.
With further say, so they become one consumer if go home, can we buy the goods of local businesses that are trying to rebuild the industry in the affected areas, and will keep you become a "good local demand."
(3) construction of education demand and community
Well, in education public officials there are aspects of "education" to another aspect of "public servants".
In this section, we would like a description of the education.
Education civil servants, "education" public servants serving reason, not just public servants only hear the government order, it is because education to employment future, in other words "vocational training" has been taken into account.
Using this vocational training, and just beyond the mere reconstruction workers, let's go the Nurturing and technology development and technology inheritance of future demand.
To do this, we come to need an excellent educators and educational institutions.
That it is, private nobody hurt, which means is born that education demand that is out of the government of the pocket.
Therefore, in private educational institutions that are suffering now declining birthrate, Chaimashou ordered vocational training.
That way, the private sector lack of demand also compensate, you will be the next generation of young people is highly accurate education is received.
In addition, now, and hire workers 40s 50s that are unemployed while having a higher technology as a lecturer, Let her have the inheritance of higher technology to the younger generation.
On which to reduce the unemployment rate, and the holding and inheritance of technical skills, you will be able to grow the forces of order to win the international competition of the next era.
Moreover, in order to raise them, "educator demand" and, such as "janitor demand" for the care, secondary demand for training is also expected, it is possible to create a labor demand in most of the generation of workers You.
Education civil servants spawned the education demand while the reconstruction work along with the local residents, can you become a consumer as big spenders of the community if go home.
Why do not you draw a diagram of the mutual relationship of supply and demand with an emphasis on community. In addition, this system also spawned regional networks and inter-generational communication.
(1), of education civil servants and processing instructor consisting of a local residents' communication through the work "
(2), of education civil servants and higher technicians of 40-50-year-old "communication through education"
(3), "Communication through the consumption" of local shops and education civil servants
(4), of the elderly janitor and education officials dorm "communication through the gatherings"
Education civil servants as asked, an isolated and revived the disparate intergenerational communication to, and does not Aim "Building a connection" in the new community or. And more, local companies also let involving in this wheel.
Education civil service strategy the second half, because the economic recovery has been made by consumption, companies will be that is a labor shortage.
So the employment of the company to enter the training in the form of "employee training", it may need once you a job as it is.
Companies in doing so can ensure the human resources, the government expected the unemployment measures and increased tax revenues, you can people also get a stable employment.
Then, in the company who will well cooperation, if to implement the cooperation corporate tax cuts, the participating companies is continuously increasing, employment of education civil servants also more and more can be secured, cans had been cut off and the cooperation and discussion of private sector It also will be able to revive the place.
As a center of education civil servants, local businesses and educational civil servants, thus the community work together to become one, we will aim to reconstruction.
Fifth of communication "communication through the work of local businesses and education civil servants" is satisfied here.
Well, I will talk to you a little sad from here, but I want to talk of quasi-education civil servants.
It is that of disaster orphans who lost their parents in the disaster.
Lose parents even now, poor benefits orphans that connect their lives in only will have more than 1,500 alone has been found.
Against them, national and local communities becomes loco parentis, watch, it should grow.
In this time of education civil servants, and at the same time liven up the economy by increasing the employment and demand, and employs orphans us as a quasi-educational civil servants, until the adult, let's subjected to a school education in the form of government hire.
Of course, not just, you asked to doing the public service about five years to see the folding from adult.
Not a gift, it is proposed that it should take the form of a prior investment to the children who are the future.
Them that lost the connection, national and community reach out, able to foster in the connection, we think the road that leads to toughening and reconstruction.
In addition, issued a subsidy the company employee suffering from depression and mental illness as "dormant employees", by introducing a dormant Employee System, let's aim is also strengthening the supply capacity preserve.
Now, company employee that is causing the depression and health problems at work too has increased.
So as a government economic stimulus measures, we give them subsidies.
In other words, to give a paid in their subsidies, and I get a rest for a while.
Of course, not only get just resting, such as employee training and technology learning, according to the recovery of mind and body, her have doing the rehabilitation and supply strength training, as soon as the economic recovery, it is to supply force by return get.
By doing so, it allowed to mitigate the current oversupply state, it will be possible to respond to future supply shortages.
In addition, since taking the paid in government subsidies, but also to the inflow of funds outside the market.
Since the management also floats dormant employees worth salary, such as the reduction of remuneration up and employee maintenance costs of other employees, management becomes easier, it should be welcomed.
Through education civil servants, while the rescue and nurture strong human resources in the education, and foster ties of society.
If the economy is a comprehensive strength of the people, the salvation of the human resources that are weak, we will strengthen, that extend the human resources extending my best, I think that it is important.
This "toughening of human resources," what, but I think it's the concept that leads to Fukoku theory Mitsuhashi teacher is in your thoughts, how might it be.
So, next time, I would like to describe the nucleus become core competence "Synergy Drive" of education civil servants.
Point in this chapter
1, education officials system to balance supply and demand while hiring people
2, use the part of the "public servants" of education civil servant, was rubble processing, and the area rebuilt in personal consumption.
3, use the part of the "education" of education civil servants, were allowed to vocational training, begin to lay the employment and education demand.
